Author: Klotz, Lynn C.
Title: Danger of Potential-Pandemic-Pathogen Research Enterprises Document date: 2015_6_16
ID: 72i1x02f_6
Snippet: Dr. Fouchier uses the simplistic formula y Ï 1/P 1 to calculate the likely number of years elapsed, y, before an escape occurs, where P 1 is the probability of escape from his lab in 1 year. His 1-million-year calculation (3) is misleading, as it does not account for the fact that research will proceed for more than 1 year, and it was not expanded to calculate the number of years that elapse before an escape occurs for the many labs in the resea.....
Document: Dr. Fouchier uses the simplistic formula y Ï 1/P 1 to calculate the likely number of years elapsed, y, before an escape occurs, where P 1 is the probability of escape from his lab in 1 year. His 1-million-year calculation (3) is misleading, as it does not account for the fact that research will proceed for more than 1 year, and it was not expanded to calculate the number of years that elapse before an escape occurs for the many labs in the research enterprise.
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