Climate Change and Health in Canada

Ford, Lea Berrang

That climate change predictions are both scientifically and politically daunting lessens neither their verity nor implied imperative (7, 8) . Climate change will involve an average increase in global temperatures of approximately 1.1-6.4°C by the end of the century (1); this range reflects both uncertainty in climate modeling, as well as a range of possible scenarios for how we will respond to climate changes, including mitigation, technology development, economic development and population growth. This temperature shift will be manifest in average global climatic changes, including higher maximum temperature, more very hot days, increased occurrence and severity of heat waves, fewer cold and frost days, fewer cold spells, more intense precipitation events, increased risk of drought in continental areas, increased cyclone intensities, and intensified ENSO events. These effects will, however, vary significantly by region and act within existing climate conditions. For example, while parts of Latin America will see minimal changes in temperature, Arctic regions are expected to experience an average temperature shift of 4-7°C by the end of the century (9) and recent research suggests that even these projections may be conservative (6, 10) .