Author: Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall
Title: Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: k5q07y4b_40
Snippet: A natural mathematical model to derive the estimate of r is a Poisson family generalised linear model (GLM) with a log link. Given the over-dispersed noise inherent in both disease dynamics and surveillance data, a quasi-Poisson family is considered here. The growth rate r is more intuitively reported as a doubling time (the time taken to double case numbers) and so t D = ln(2)/r. The log-linear analysis from a Poisson GLM defined formally below .....
Document: A natural mathematical model to derive the estimate of r is a Poisson family generalised linear model (GLM) with a log link. Given the over-dispersed noise inherent in both disease dynamics and surveillance data, a quasi-Poisson family is considered here. The growth rate r is more intuitively reported as a doubling time (the time taken to double case numbers) and so t D = ln(2)/r. The log-linear analysis from a Poisson GLM defined formally below is restricted to datasets (or time windows) with clear exponential growth, or when additional explanatory variables, which are rarely available in real time, exist.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- clear exponential growth and exponential growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- clear exponential growth and growth rate: 1, 2, 3
- clear exponential growth and linear model: 1
- disease dynamic and exponential growth: 1, 2
- disease dynamic and growth rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- disease dynamic and linear model: 1
- disease dynamic and mathematical model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- disease dynamic and real time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- double case and growth rate: 1
- double case number and growth rate: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date