Author: Klotz, Lynn C.
Title: Danger of Potential-Pandemic-Pathogen Research Enterprises Document date: 2015_6_16
ID: 72i1x02f_27
Snippet: Furthermore, there is a rather arcane subject in probability, branching theory, which allows prediction of the likelihood of uncontrolled spread of any pathogen based on its observed reproductive number (R o ) value and the variance to mean of the R o . A large variance to mean could occur due to superspreaders, for instance, some people infected with SARS virus. For a wide range of R o values, Lipsitch and coworkers have calculated the probabili.....
Document: Furthermore, there is a rather arcane subject in probability, branching theory, which allows prediction of the likelihood of uncontrolled spread of any pathogen based on its observed reproductive number (R o ) value and the variance to mean of the R o . A large variance to mean could occur due to superspreaders, for instance, some people infected with SARS virus. For a wide range of R o values, Lipsitch and coworkers have calculated the probability of uncontrolled spread (see Fig. 4a in their study [9] ). For a single infected individual with an R o of 2, the probability of an uncontrolled outbreak ranges from 10% (spread of R o s) to 80% (uniform R o ). Thus, the pandemic likelihood from a single infected individual is potentially large. I suspect that future risk assessments will confirm that once a highly contagious potentially pandemic pathogen escapes, the probability of an uncontrolled outbreak is significant, leading again to a focus on the probability of a laboratory escape as the important factor.
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