Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

Azizi, Asma; Montalvo, Cesar; Espinoza, Baltazar; Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

The decisions that individuals make over an epidemic outbreak depend on multiple factors. Here, they are assumed to depend on available information, misinformation, and the income/education of those making them (Del Valle, Hethcote, Hyman, & Castillo-Chavez, 2005; Fenichel et al., 2011; Herrera-Valdez, Cruz-Aponte, & Castillo-Chavez, 2011; Perrings et al., 2014; Towers et al., 2015) . There are multiple possible scenarios that consider the decisions that individuals may make over the course of an outbreak. Individuals may modify their behaviors in order to reduce their environmental susceptibility to a disease by washing their hands frequently, avoiding handshakes and avoiding kissing salutes, not taking public transportation during rush hours, using masks and more. The frequency and effectiveness of these decisions may depend on the perceived risk of infection, a function of what each individual "knows". In short, individual responses to new circumstances are adaptive and may depend on real or perceive risks of infection. Current disease prevalence, may become a marker or a tipping point, that when crossed, triggers individual or policy decisions. Whether or not individuals follow public health officials' recommendations may be a function of individuals' economic/educational status. The determination to make a drastic decision may be weakened or reinforced by each individual's networks of friends. Responses are altered by the opinions of work-related connections. Personal needs play a role, and they include the need to use public transportation or the desire to attend a social event.