Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_21
Snippet: The simplest and most popular mechanistic compartmental model for describing the spread of an infectious agent in a well-mixed population is the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model (Anderson & May 1991) . In this model, the infection rate is often defined as the product of three quantities: a constant transmission rate (b), the number of susceptible individuals in the population (SðtÞ), and the probability that a susceptible ind.....
Document: The simplest and most popular mechanistic compartmental model for describing the spread of an infectious agent in a well-mixed population is the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model (Anderson & May 1991) . In this model, the infection rate is often defined as the product of three quantities: a constant transmission rate (b), the number of susceptible individuals in the population (SðtÞ), and the probability that a susceptible individual encounters an infectious individual ( IðtÞ N ). Moreover, infected individuals experience a mean latent and a mean infectious period given by 1=k and 1=g, respectively. The model is based on a system of ordinary differential equations that keep track of the temporal progression in the number of susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), and removed (R) individuals as follows:
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