Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_87
Snippet: We can observe that the uncertainty of the forecasts narrows down as more data of the early growth phase is employed to estimate parameters of the GGM. That is, the uncertainty in parameter estimates is not only reduced, but the parameter estimates are also increasingly constrained around their true values (Fig. 13) . Importantly, using only 10 days of data, it is not possible to reliably estimate discriminate between sub-exponential and exponent.....
Document: We can observe that the uncertainty of the forecasts narrows down as more data of the early growth phase is employed to estimate parameters of the GGM. That is, the uncertainty in parameter estimates is not only reduced, but the parameter estimates are also increasingly constrained around their true values (Fig. 13) . Importantly, using only 10 days of data, it is not possible to reliably estimate discriminate between sub-exponential and exponential-growth dynamics. The corresponding performance of the GGM during the calibration and forecasting periods is shown in Fig. 14 .
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