Author: Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall
Title: Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: k5q07y4b_48
Snippet: As a further test for the robustness of our results, we simply visually assess the growth rates of the epidemic in a set of countries by plotting data on a log scale and compare the observed slopes with pure exponential trends ( Figure S3 ). To avoid relying on confirmed cases only, we plot a 'mixed bag' of cumulative cases, daily new confirmations, hospitalisations and deaths. We also plot exponential trends with a lower growth rate (r = 0.18 an.....
Document: As a further test for the robustness of our results, we simply visually assess the growth rates of the epidemic in a set of countries by plotting data on a log scale and compare the observed slopes with pure exponential trends ( Figure S3 ). To avoid relying on confirmed cases only, we plot a 'mixed bag' of cumulative cases, daily new confirmations, hospitalisations and deaths. We also plot exponential trends with a lower growth rate (r = 0.18 and r = 0.13) to aid the visual distinction in slopes between different exponential growths and the visual assessment of the potential effects of interventions in Italy.
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